Daily Kos

Should we invade Pakistan?

Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:42:38 PM PDT

I think we should--or at least, we should threaten to.  And we should  consider something similar for North Korea an Iran as well.

Before you go ballistic (or just dismiss this diary as the rantings of a bloodthirsty lunatic), hear me out--please!

From the WaPo:

Khan will essentially go unpunished for presiding over what Pakistani officials now acknowledge, after years of denials, was a far-reaching scheme to peddle hardware, blueprints and design assistance by means of a thriving nuclear black market stretching from the Persian Gulf to Southeast Asia.
[...]
According to investigators, Khan said he provided the assistance to Iran, North Korea and Libya to deflect international attention from Pakistan's nuclear program.

He also has maintained, according to a friend of Khan's and a senior investigator, that three army chiefs of staff, including Musharraf, were aware of the assistance he provided to North Korea in exchange for help with Pakistan's ballistic missile program.

So not only is Pakistan constantly teetering on the verge of becoming a nuclear-armed radical Islamist regime, it has been peddling the technology to some of the worst characters out there.  And this guy Khan is getting off without even so much as a slap on the wrist.

I wish there were no such thing as nuclear weapons.  But the genie's out of the bottle, and we have to live in the real world.  However, there's a world of difference between regimes like China's (which--as awful as they are--show little likelihood of nuking anyone or giving nukes to terrorists or rogue states) and the horrendous mess in Islamabad.  This state of affairs, if allowed to continue, threatens the lives of millions.  

And beyond the obvious risks of massive levels of death, destruction/contamination, and radiation sickness and cancer, think of the chaos that would ensue if a few of the world's great cities (New York, London, Moscow) were hit by nuclear holocaust.  Beyond the immediate social and economic displacement (that would make 9/11 pale by comparison), what do you suppose would happen in other big cities?  Residents would scatter across the landscape, afraid to gather in concentrations that would make them future targets.  Their diaspora, though it might rejuvenate some small towns, would put an incredible strain on the infrastructure and devastate the environment.  The urban underclass might  well remain in the cities, for lack of other options; but their economic situation would become even more desperate.

Civil liberties would become a distant memory.  Draconian martial law would likely become de rigueur across the globe, as the world's superpowers freak out, carve the world into spheres of influence (though this could have the potential, ironically, to ignite an old-fashioned, rubble-bouncing, ICBM exchange), and clamp down hard on any group that could remotely be associated with terrorism.  (Of course, that's also a perfect opportunity to take out one's political opponents, as we Democrats can imagine all too well.)

So keep this nightmarish scenario in mind as I argue, essentially, that "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure".

What we should do:

Go to the Security Council (perhaps in closed session) and try to enlist the cooperation (or at least, noninterference) of the other nuclear superpowers.  All are threatened by nuclear proliferation.

Issue an ultimatum to Pakistan.  They must turn over all their nukes, scrap their programs, and allow the continual oversight of nuclear inspectors (including watching the scientists 24/7).  Or else.  (Oh, and let us come in and look for Osama while we're at it.)  The "carrot" part of the package could include economic aid, maybe even supplying conventional weapons like tanks and planes as a sort of compensation.

Similar "offers" should be extended to Iran and perhaps North Korea (depending on whether or not they have crossed the threshold to a capability of delivering ICBM nukes to American cities, which puts them in the "too late" category).

Furthermore, the nuclear powers need to be more vigilant and uncompromising about proliferation.  The world's uranium mines should be placed under heavy guard, under the control of the SC.  All the world's enriched uranium and plutonium needs to be precisely inventoried and better guarded.  And though in general I am very reluctant to put any controls on the dissemination of knowledge, I think the methodology of producing WMDs needs to be an exception.  It should be illegal worldwide to teach this information  in universities or otherwise promulgate it, except in top-secret  military academies (and anyone who becomes a nuclear scientist would agree to give up, for life, a certain measure of civil liberties--they should be subject to constant surveillance).

Yes, a lot of this sounds harsh, and I myself don't relish the notion of taking such extreme measures.  But, again: consider the alternative.

Poll

What do you think of the ideas expressed in this diary?

54%26 votes
27%13 votes
18%9 votes

| 48 votes | Vote | Results

Tags: (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 113 comments

  •  This is a great idea (none / 1)

    Threatening to invade a country of 150,000,000 with a nuclear bomb is certainly the best way to defend ourselves from terrorism. This will increase our stature in the world community, and allow other nations to see that we are a beacon of hope for the rest of the world. and hell, we certainly have the military capacity for such an invasion without reinstating a draft.

    I see no holes in this argument whatsoever. A brilliant thesis.

    The Empirical Left is coming!

    by Chris Bowers on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:46:29 PM PDT

  •  Slacker: the return of Slacker! (none / 1)

    Hello Slacker!

    It's nice to see you back again, this time with another outrageous scheme. Didn't you catch Bush's spokesman yesterday? He said that the President is convinced that Pakistan is doing the right thing and curtailing its ties to terrorists. Doesn't that convince you? After the world's shortest ever investigation, everything's cool. No prob. Nukes? Did somebody say nukes?

    It's pretty amazing how low-key we are this time around.... I guess we have to be when, you know, our entire military is off shooting at Baathist guerrillas and trying to hold down some semblance of order before the high-tailed retreat in June. Kind of limits our options wrt to defending ourselves, and, like, prosecuting the Bush doctrine. But shit. The President's spokesman says there's no threat. I'm cool with that.

    "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

    by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:47:52 PM PDT

    •  Oh Bullshit (none / 0)

      Bush approves of pardons period. He's going to need one himself someday.

      -- "Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man."

      by Gary on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:49:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The president, convince me? (none / 0)

      You're joking, right?  LOL
      •  Well, (none / 0)

        It worked last time. In fact, his convincing seems to have worked better on you than it did on himself. Here you are proposing to invade yet another country.... didn't you catch Krugman today? Your memories are no longer operative.

        "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

        by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:53:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  When was this? (none / 0)

          What did Bush convince me of?  Because it certainly wasn't that "Iraq is an imminent threat" if that's what you mean.  I thought, sure, maybe Iraq has WMDs, maybe they don't.  I wasn't, frankly, all that interested in the answer to that question because I found it unlikely that they'd use them against us, and in fact posited that invading Iraq might make us less safe in the short run, as Saddam might hand off WMDs to terrorists as a kind of "suicide revenge".

          But I was for the war (and still am) solely for the reason of removing Saddam as a menace to his own people.  Go back and look at my original blogging of this and you'll see that I never bought into Bush's rationales--I had my own.

          •  Yes, yes, I know (none / 0)

            We've had this discussion.... blah blah. But Bush must have convinced you that whatever comes next in Iraq will be better than Saddam. And, at least right now, I'm not so sure. Even if it isn't quite so murderous a dictator, it could still very well be very very dangerous for us.

            And anyway, why have you suddenly become converted to the cause of WMD destruction now, in Pakistan? Is it because it's obvious that Pakistan actually is a threat? If so, then you're an unpatriotic, anti-American treacherous swine! Didn't you hear what our President said? Pakistan isn't a threat. If Pakistan were a threat, don't you think our glorious protector would have done something about it by now, like land on an aircraft carrier? Listen to your leaders and stay in line. Pakistan isn't a threat. Saddam was responsible for 9/11. Got that?

            "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

            by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:04:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  If I may (3.50 / 6)

    include another choice for your poll.

    What do you think of the ideas expressed in this diary?

    _ They reflect an dangerously inadequate and wrong-headed understanding of the phenomenon of terrorism and the issues of nuclear proliferation.  

    I'd vote for that choice.

    Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

    by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:50:51 PM PDT

    •  The insanity choice (none / 0)

      Considering this, doesn't the insanity choice seem reasonable to you?
      The Empirical Left is coming!

      by Chris Bowers on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:52:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  well no (none / 0)

        since the insanity choice has "evil" in it, I don't believe in evil, especially as a political or sociological category.  

        But insanity also implies some lack of control or ability to understand and think differently.

        I chose my phrasing precisely because I believe there is a lack of will to try and look at the situations and circumstances and understand them differently.

        Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

        by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:05:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Let's hear the "different understanding" (none / 0)

          I notice in your posts a propensity to lob criticisms without offering alternate proposals of your own.

          Feel free to counter this perception, any time now.

          •  The different understanding I have (none / 1)

            is a pretty broad reorientation of the whole picture, one I'd gladly engage share in a setting where the interest in it and the respect for it were evident.  This isn't one of those settings since the time, the space and the energy it would take to unpack even the three most basic prinicples
            1. Why "security" has to be considered in terms other than military ones, and conceived not in terms of overpowering force, but in mutually and reinforcing possibilities
            2. Why the "war on terrorism" is the wrong framework for this problem to be confronted within
            3. Why nuclear proliferation issues must be teased apart from terrorism issues and treated as a separate set of problems even when/if "terrorists" are the ones engaged in the proliferation.    
            is too great.  And I've certainly no reason to invest that much given the attitude you just expressed to me and have in the past.  

            But I believe I did offer a couple of tangible suggestions in my last post.

            Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

            by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:41:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, you did (none / 0)

              (I think my post above was written before that, or before I read it)

              I would invite you to consider, though, whether I have expressed less interest in, or respect for, your ideas than you have in mine.  But hey.

              I do think we'd agree (you never like it when I say this, LOL) on some approaches here.  I believe a huge factor that has to be addressed in "combating" terrorism worldwide is the economic imperialism of the West, and the American complicity in backing or even creating many of the worst genocidal regimes over the last century or more.  We should, ideally, apologise for what we've done, and take major steps not only to right past wrongs but to ease the stark inequities of the global economic system (I'm totally down with the "Battle of Seattle" movement).  Of course, in terms of pragmatic politics, even a whiff of this approach easily gets demonised by the Republicans, and I'm not sure there's any way of combating that at the moment.

              And in any case it's too late to go back in time and undo the mistakes that led to the current situation in Pakistan.  Regardless of how "unfair" it may be, they need to be taken down for the good of the world.

              •  I'd say (none / 0)

                we might find agreement on what some of the basic problems are, but I'm pretty sure we part company almost immediately up discussion of solutions.

                And if I haven't shown these ideas proper respect, that's probably a function of burn-out today.  It's becoming clear to me that I need to take a dKos vaction for a while, I've lost my ability to find the right tone around here and have had my buttons pushed far too often.

                Increasingly the energy required to hang out here and participate is providing less payback in my own ability to think through stuff and develop my understanding of issues.  And I'm obviously not handling the frustration very well.

                Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

                by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:13:32 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think you were all that harsh here (none / 0)

                  I was thinking more of your dismissive attitude in the past.

                  But honestly, despite all that, I would hate to see you go.  Maybe instead of the presumptuous "you and I agree on more than you think", I should say "it might surprise you how much I agree with you."  After all, I can't speak for you as to how you feel about my ideas; but I can certainly state a feeling of agreement with many of yours.  And I think you add to this board, honestly.  So do what you want, but I hope I'm not involved in running you off.  offers hand in peace

                  •  Appreciate the hand in peace (none / 0)

                    but I've lost my ability to make my points without attitude it would seem as today I've been accused on this thread of consdescending to you, of being inhumane and pissy to Deaniacs on another thread and just of being sanctimonious on another completely unrelated subject.

                    I think the wear and tear of just always seeing something ELSE and being a kind of permanent contrarian is getting to me.  If I start to take this stuff personally, then there's no point in participating.  I do try to be up front with where I'm coming from and with people whom I fundamentally disagree with, but there's now a list of names I'm just beginning to loathe for none other than personal reasons and that's just nonsense.  I don't bring anything to the conversation or to me if I'm engaging on that level.  

                    pax. :]  

                    Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

                    by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:29:19 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You have a 'tude... (none / 0)

                      but that makes things "spicy".  <g>

                      However, if it's no fun for you (and is not fruitful in some other, non-fun way), your call.  

                      Take care,

                    •  ICUR point (none / 0)

                      I think the wear and tear of just always seeing something ELSE and being a kind of permanent contrarian is getting to me.

                      I feel your pain - literally.  Just hang back and trust that all the polling and voting action has made a few DKos readers/posters into (hopefully temporary) junkies.  As with any junkie, they tend to hurt those they love if they stand in their way of a fix (a fiery political debate, in this case).

                      Log on twice a day and for no more than an hour at a time.  You'll feel a LOT better I promise.

                      Not to mention, we here who DO enjoy your thinking things out (such as your Statue of Liberty/public lands diaries/comments a while back) want you to stay and cause our OWN little brains to spark.

                      Pax

                      Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

                      by Soj on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:57:43 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Don't Do That (none / 1)

                  It's becoming clear to me that I need to take a dKos vacation for a while

                  Since I -- and I'm sure, the vast majority of Kos readers -- enjoy reading your insightful comments, I would encourage you to reconsider.

                  I'm convinced that in a previous life, SlackerInc was an anarchist -- only to be reincarnated as an agitator now!  ;)

                  A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

                  by JekyllnHyde on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:34:18 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  So let's hear your ideas (none / 0)

      What do we do about a country that blithely allows its nuclear scientists to sell nuclear weapons technology to shady characters for profit?  This is the future of all humankind that is on the line here--screw national sovereignty and all that BS!
      •  My ideas (none / 0)

        have to do with first understanding the nature of the problem and understanding it in the proper context.

        The first thing I would do is recognize that many of the people "selling" these weapons are doing so out of firmly held solidarity with the people who are buying them, not simply profit.

        Given that we are also a nation that has (in our history) blithely stood back and given (not sold, since we paid for the aid that purchased it in the first place) nuclear weapons to shady characters for both profit and firmly held solidarity (i.e. Israel and then indirectly through Israel, South Africa) we should know and understand how and why this happens.  

        We should also recognize it as an international, multilateral issue that requires a multilateral solution, the most obvious being reduce, ever reduce the allies that help in the process of the proliferation and recruit, recruit recruit potential allies of those seeking the weapons to ensure the MADness of the solutions.  This is absolutely NOT a situation that the US can solve on its own and not a situation that the US can solve via overpowering military force or strong-armed tactics.  Those are the primary reasons we are in the situation we are in.  

        The future of humankind has been on the line for a long time (and remains on the line even when the nuclear proliferation problem is "managed" given the global warming problem) so excessively manufactured hyperbole and angst only contributes to the problem.  

        This is a political problem and it requires a political solution.  It also requires a different set of actors than the US, I'm tempted to say the Chinese, since they have much stronger interests in the region and a much, much stronger interest in maintaining a workable balance of power between India and Pakistan, and in keeping insurgent Muslim extremist groups from gaining traction in that part of the world.

        But, the first thing you have to do is get this problem removed from the context of a war on terrorism; it will never be solved in that framework, only (if we are very, very, very, very lucky and have far wiser leaders than our nation has had in the last 70 years) "managed" at best.  

        Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

        by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:22:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your plan (none / 1)

          Sounds like a recipe for......... nothing. When do we take action? How about after it's obvious that no one else gives a shit about disarming terrorists? The current regime in Pakistan isn't doing anything to make us safer... they're making us less safe. It's hard to operate as we need to with Musharraf in place.

          Political solution? How about war.

          China? There's a good faith actor for you.

          "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

          by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:26:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Fair enough... (none / 0)

          I'm not content just to "manage" the situation diplomatically, but I appreciate your articulating your position.
        •  Your ideas (none / 1)

          First, the idea that the people selling equipment and technology to these countries are motivated by great altruistic purposes is really difficult to believe. The type of people that dominate the international weapons trade would probably not be confused with social workers.
          China didn't help Pakistan acquire nuclear weapons to show solidarity with the Pakistani people, they did so for the usual boring balance of power/geopolitical motives. If you want to call that solidarity, fine.  The companies that sold Saddam dual use equipment in the 80's often knew what he was up to, and I really doubt their concern was the welfare of the Arab masses.
          Second, we didn't give or sell nuclear weapons to Israel. France was more active in that endeavor than our country, and I am not sure solidarity had all that much to do with that either.
          •  Far too many leaps of logic (none / 1)

            to engage in this kind of discussion on an internet site.

            First, the idea that the people selling equipment and technology to these countries are motivated by great altruistic purposes is really difficult to believe.

            I said nothing of the kind.  I said that there are reasons beyond "profit" why people are selling equipment.  The world of political motivations is much more than a black and vision of either good or evil, or for profit/for altruism.  Failing to understand that is one obstacle to confronting and solving the problem. I would never call a shared commitment to political beliefs genuinely felt "altruism" whether I agreed with the political beliefs or not.  People, even nuclear scientists have political, national, cultural, ethnic, relitious beliefs to which they are committed, all of these have political dimensions.

            Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

            by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:48:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  right (none / 1)

              I am not quite sure you read what I wrote. I would completely agree that 'The world of political motivations is much more than a black and vision of either good or evil, or for profit/for altruism' because that was pretty much what I was saying. But to say as you said that-

              'The first thing I would do is recognize that many of the people "selling" these weapons are doing so out of firmly held solidarity with the people who are buying them, not simply profit.'
              simply doesn't fit the facts.  Nobody has 'sold' any nuclear weapons that I know of, though it is certainly true that governments have helped others along the way, and in most cases it seems to be for because of realpolitik/security reasons or as a result of gross negligence.  

              If you read back you will see I mentioned political motives for nuclear proliferation in the example I gave of China/Pakistan.  France's assistance to the Israeli nuclear programme was seen by some as paying off a debt owed after the Suez crisis.  So clearly, politics, insecurity, etc are important factors.  However, what I was saying was that the motives of companies (I didn't say scientists!) that sell dual use equipment have little to do with politics, and almost everything to do with profit.  

              I never even mentioned nuclear scientists.  I was talking about companies that knowingly sell dual-use equipment that is involved in the making of nuclear weapons.  And yes, I think their primary motive in this regard was profit. Think of the US companies sold Saddam hundreds of millions of dollars worth of dual use equipment and the ingredients of chemical weapons during the 1980's.  While we can't read their minds, it would not seem to be too far of a leap in logic to think that money was their primary motive.
              Finally, another important factor in proliferation is that the countries that are now attempting to (or have recently acquired) nuclear weapons are also all very poor with huge external debts.  It would certainly be a powerful temptation for one of these countries to sell technology/equipment to another developing country with nuclear ambitions.  Indeed, it already appears to have taken place.  

               

    •  Why? (none / 1)

      Why are you always so condescending to Slacker? He put his thoughts out here, and your post suggests that his contribution is worthless.

      "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

      by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:06:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks, man (none / 0)

        I really appreciate that.
        •  She was busy.... (none / 1)

          .... neutering me the other day. But let me say this: my balls are still intact! To gilas girl: do your worst! Ha ha ha ha!

          "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

          by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:13:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I wasn't aware that I was always (none / 0)

        condescending to Slacker.

        But I do think a suggestion that we invade a nation that is precariously unstable and has nuclear weapons because there is a circumstance that seriously threatens us is a very simplistic understanding of foreign policy, security and nuclear proliferation issues.  

        Slacker always has rather macho solutions and observations about the world and I will admit that I find those alternatively offensive, ridiculous and some times just ordinary.  But I think I've always made that clear to him.  He also tries very often to (rather condescendingly in my experience of it) recast my viewpoints as if they agree with his when they are normally 180 degrees in opposition, and I find that a troublesome trait.  I think I've raised this issue with him before as well.

        But my additional poll option was included not simply to condescend to Slacker, but to express what I believe I have expressed before, namely a frustration at the entire conventional wisdom of how we in this country address questions of security, of the "war on terrorism" and of nuclear proliferation.  I didn't offer it as a personal insult to Slacker, but as a commentary on the conventional wisdom of all of us, myself included. If that post and the additional poll choice was inappropriately condescending or insulting to Slacker, then I obviously went too far and I gladly retract it.

           

        Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

        by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:57:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sometimes perhaps (none / 1)

          There are various means available in the typical toolkit (whether for solving geopolitical problems or message board debate) and to simply state that "macho" solutions or a condescending tone are always inappropriate don't seem to make much progress in a discussion.

          It may be that in some situations the macho option is the best one. I see little evidence for the proposition that we live in a world where bad actors can in all instances be removed by means other than force. In some cases perhaps, but certainly not all.

          The way I'd analyze the situation is to ask (to the extent it can be answered - another real issue) whether Slacker's solution creates more serious problems than it resolves. On the face of it the answer is not clear to me...especially given all clear signs that Pakistan cannot be expected to behave responsibly in regards to proliferation.

          Peace, freedom and a few less fat bastards eating all the pie

          by JPP on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:28:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It may be (none / 0)

            that in some solutions the macho solution is the best option, but I've yet to be confronted with that solution and I can't think of one in history where its been the best option.  Sometimes its the most expedient option, but I've never seen one where its the best.

            But that's almost a tenet with me, so perhaps in the interest of truth in advertising I should context my remarks with that observation (sort of like the way anti-war commenters always seem to contextualize and therefore legitimize there anti-war comments with the preface "I'm no pacifist, but...".

            I also must confess to being adversely affected by the excessive testosterone levels at dKos in general.  They do tend to get my back up a bit and can perhaps account for some of that distortion.  That's a personal quirk.

            Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

            by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:37:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Although (none / 0)

            I didn't read your comment thoroughly before I replied last time, sorry.

            It may be that in some situations the macho option is the best one. I see little evidence for the proposition that we live in a world where bad actors can in all instances be removed by means other than force. In some cases perhaps, but certainly not all.

            when I refer to something as "macho" I'm not referring to (and simply dismissing the use of force).  Force in and of itself isn't "macho" in my book.  Macho is in the posture and the excess and the appropriateness and in the need to display the excess and the inappropriateness.  The attitude about force as much as its use or nonuse that determines what I mean.  

            Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

            by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:41:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In that case (none / 1)

              I think our outlook is probably similar in that regard - though I know how you hate it when people agree w/you if they don't really. ;)

              I'd leave it at saying that someone can come to the right conclusion in the wrong way while another can come to the wrong conclusion while looking at the situation in the right way. I've not studied the issue enough to even propose I'd know how to determine who is right on this particular question, or even if I could reasonably make such a judgment. I do think that recent and potential events make me consider legitimate options that I would have actively protested not that long ago.

              Peace, freedom and a few less fat bastards eating all the pie

              by JPP on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 09:08:55 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  She does it because Slacker is tough (none / 1)

        and can take it. It's not a problem for Slacker.
        •  Fair point (none / 0)

          Though I do really appreciate when people defend me.  I guess I like that more than I dislike being attacked, if that makes any sense.  So either way, it's cool.  :)
        •  Re: She does it because Slacker is tough (none / 1)

          Not only is SlackerInc's pain threshold very high, I believe he might even be immune to pain. Given that he has incurred several thrashings here over the past few weeks, I haven't figured that one out as of yet.

          Question: is SlackerInc human or an android?  :)

          A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

          by JekyllnHyde on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 09:41:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Ah (3.50 / 2)

    bloodshed. It's been proven since time began that nothing solves problems quicker than killing people!

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-02-19-mccain-roe_x.htm

    by joojooluv on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:51:19 PM PDT

    •  So you're a strict pacifist? (none / 0)

      You wouldn't even go along with, for instance, sending in troops to Rwanda back in the early Clinton admin, to stop the genocide?  Or--to go back further--taking on Hitler (and his potential to become a genocidal nuclear power)?
      •  I am (none / 0)

        a strict pacifist. I don't believe in violence as a problem solving tool. I'm more of a "only in self-defense" kind of person. I admit that my geo-political knowledge is probably lame and limited, compared to others and my thoughts about violence are visceral and simple. It is not good, on the small scale in person, or on the large scale in war.

        As for any of the other bad actors across history and the world I can say only this: the US is MIGHTY selective about who is 'bad' and 'evil'.

        I believe that putting 'energy' into war perpetuates war.

        Sorry to sound so mystical. I don't mean to.

        http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-02-19-mccain-roe_x.htm

        by joojooluv on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:28:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree about US past actions (none / 0)

          They are reprehensible (I've read my fair share of Zinn and Chomsky).  But that doesn't mean, to me, that we can't do better.  In fact, I think we will have to, or face a nightmarish future, as I outlined above.
        •  Don't apologize (none / 1)

          I don't believe in violence as a problem solving tool. I'm more of a "only in self-defense" kind of person. I admit that my geo-political knowledge is probably lame and limited, compared to others and my thoughts about violence are visceral and simple. It is not good, on the small scale in person, or on the large scale in war.

          As for any of the other bad actors across history and the world I can say only this: the US is MIGHTY selective about who is 'bad' and 'evil'.

          I believe that putting 'energy' into war perpetuates war.

          Sorry to sound so mystical. I don't mean to.

          Don't apologize.  Just because you haven't had a chance to practice pacifism while bullets whine around your head and dangerous murderous thugs patrol your streets doesn't mean it's not a legitimate and true expression of what you feel is the right thing to do.  My geo-political "knowledge" is hardly lame or limited and I can confirm what you already know is true: people who have gone through war want no more of it.  People who have had loved ones injured or killed because of violence want no more of it.  

          I just finished reading the book "Band of Brothers", which was touted by the guy who gave it to me as this "war is glorious" kind of thing, a true story where volunteer soldiers in this totally beleaguered unit went through hell fighting in WW2 and made closer friendships with their buddies than they would ever know the rest of their lives.  The friendship part is true, and it was the one enobling thing about their experiences during the war.  On the other hand, every last one of them said war was terrible, war was a hell and they never wanted to ever see it again.

          Putting energy into war does perpetrate war.  This isn't some kind of dirty secret or anything.  The "dirty secret" if any is that some people like war, actually like it, and you're just not allowed to say it.  They cover it up by saying it's noble or patriotic but it would be much more honest to say that they like it.  Generals like planning it and presidents like sitting in that little war room with the maps and the codes and the computer blips and strikes and missiles and the whole nine yards.  

          I've never flown a bomber aircraft but I bet for the pilot up there, his head full of notions that he has to kill the people below for a greater good, it really IS something enjoyable.  Seeing the power of the blasts, seeing the enemies of your happiness smote to bits, I bet it is something you enjoy.  Time to call a spade a spade.  Some people like to kill.  Talking about it isn't shocking but the fact that it exists isn't shocking.  We all are descended from ancestors who have killed thousands if not millions of people over time.  We are all descended from killers.

          That being said - I'm still a pacifist.  I'm the only individual in my building not armed with a gun or pepper spray.  So there you go.

          Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

          by Soj on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 09:10:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Especially important (none / 1)

            for people who are pacificts not to be forced to "apologize" for it.  I always like to contextualize my positions vis-a-vis political violence with the observation that I'm neither courageous nor smart enough to be a pacifist.  

            True pacifists are the bravest people in the world and the least ideological because of the price they are willing to pay for what they know/believe to be true.  

            What's particularly dangerous is not just the Thrill or adrenalin rush that goes with violence and violent solutions to political/social problems, but the sheer raw pragmatism of it; that's the part that makes it so dangerous, it is so bloody easy to rationalize and make a case for.  

            Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

            by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 09:35:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Addendum (none / 0)

              I also think the reverse is true: there's a kind of fauxpacifism that many people [some big chunks on the left, unfortunately] adopt out of laziness and pragmatism as well.  There lots of people who claim pacifism but then aren't willing to invest into it any of what it costs; they have a kind of unthinking pacifism and while that's a noble sentiment, it strikes thatit is mostly that: sentimental.    

              Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

              by a gilas girl on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 09:38:50 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I think that depends... (none / 0)

            I've never flown a bomber aircraft but I bet for the pilot up there, his head full of notions that he has to kill the people below for a greater good, it really IS something enjoyable.  Seeing the power of the blasts, seeing the enemies of your happiness smote to bits, I bet it is something you enjoy.

            Have you ever read Joseph Heller's Catch-22?

  •  Well, we can all be ... (none / 1)

    worried about Pakistan.  Don't think that means we have to invade just yet.

    What puzzles me is how any honest hawk (and I believe that species exist, albeit endangered) would think that Iraq was a more pressing concern than Pakistan.

    "A newspaper consists of just the same number of words, whether there be any news in it or not." - Henry Fielding

    by lefty skeptic on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:51:31 PM PDT

  •  what about mexico? (4.00 / 2)

    that would solve some of our oil problems, and the immigration stuff and the problems with NAFTA too.
  •  jesus christ, dude. (none / 0)

    No offense, but that's just crazy talk.
    •  Can you be more substantive? (none / 0)

      Do you disagree that the potential downside to letting this "slide" is apocalyptic in its scope?
      •  Yuo (none / 0)

        Apocalyptic. That's the right word. Too bad we can't do shit about it. Like my President said: Pakistan's cleaning up its act. It only took a week's investigation and a hasty pardon. Why do you think Musharraf wanted to shut that guy up so fast?

        Threats? UN? We'll be laughed out of the room.

        "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

        by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 06:57:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good point about the UN (none / 0)

          But I'd still, were I president, go forward with the plan--as long as I could at least ascertain that doing so wouldn't result in one of the superpowers nuking us.  (And I don't think it would.)
          •  Superpowers? (none / 0)

            You mean, like Pakistan? Because I don't think they'd take an invasion very kindly.

            "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

            by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:07:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But do they have ICBMs? (none / 0)

              If not, they could be conquered (or preferably cowed) with little risk to our civilian population.
              •  How about (none / 0)

                our troops? They could blow up their own device in the middle of Islamabad or Karachi and it would be disastrous for us.

                "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

                by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:35:20 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Do you think... (none / 0)

                  they would "suicide bomb" themselves?  I'm not so sure.  But yeah, there is obvious risk.  Of course, as soon as they pull this we yank our soldiers out (they only have fission bombs AFAIK, so they wouldn't be able to infict nearly as much damage to our troops as to their population) and hit 'em with some H-bombs.  Hopefully it wouldn't come to that though.
                  •  Nuclear War=bad (none / 0)

                    Yes, it would be bad if we started trading nuclear warheads. My intuition is that we don't know where Pakistan's bombs go post-Musharraf, so the danger of maniacs' getting them is very high, IMHO. After all, the huge difference in dealing with this kind of terrorist is that killing them does not deter them.

                    "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

                    by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:49:46 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  There are no good options, that's for sure (none / 0)

                      What do you think we should do?  (And I ask that not as a challenge but with respect, and interest, in case the tone wasn't clear.)
                      •  Here are my ill-formed ideas (none / 0)

                        1.  It is simply not possible to talk of invading Pakistan post-Bush. We don't have the military, and we don't have the international support. So the first step is to get Bush out of office. I don't mean that ironically: I think it's a prerequisite to our doing anything constructive regarding foreign policy.
                        2.  When we have the resources, we should re-invest in Afghanistan. Get Karzai to invite us back in, overthrow the warlords, and make Afghanistan work. I have these weird karmic ideas that everything is connected. The roadmap was on track when Iraq looked like a success; it bit the dust the moment it became obvious that we could (or would) not sustain our commitment to the Middle East. If we make Afghanistan ours, I think the pressure on Musharraf is major.
                        3.  When the time comes, we announce (with British support) that we can no longer abide Musharraf staying in power with nukes. Make regime change the official policy, and make absolutely sure that there's an intrusive UN inspection system to get rid of the nukes. If India does so simultaneously, China will not veto that SC resolution. If Pakistan doesn't agree, then there's cause for war.
                        4.  In the meantime, we must know where the nukes are. So a major intelligence commitment to Pakistan is necessary.
                        It doesn't look like we disagree so much. Fancy that. I just think we don't have the necessary freedom of action right now.

                        "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

                        by Marshall on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:07:01 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  Who has them now (none / 0)

                      Problem is, given how unreliable the ISI is, I don't think we can be sure that "maniacs" don't already have them.  That's how we started this conversation--AQ Khan trading nukes.

                      This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

                      by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:59:17 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Can you be more substantive? (none / 0)

        Sure.  

        That's crazy "ha-ha, bats in the belfry, lights are on but no one's home, armchair geopolitical expert, here come the nice men in the white suits to take me away, I picked the wrong week to stop taking thorazine" talk.

  •  ______ (none / 1)

    But the chief nuclear scientist who released nuclear materials onto the world, like blowing on a dandelion, apologized.

    Good enough for me! Stop asking questions. What are you, from Old Europe or something?

    Navigating through this basement that masquerades as a nation... --Atmosphere

    by AlanD on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:01:04 PM PDT

  •  Some considerations (none / 1)

    First, I suspect US complascency about Dr. Khan remaining free reflects a belief on the part of teh Administration and the CIA that he has been turned to the "good" side of the ISI, basically meaning he's going to become an intelligence source for us. I suspect it either means we believe he has told us everything, or we're trying to get him to tell us everything (for example, did he sell technology to Saudi Arabia? There was a brief news blip a few months back saying Saudi Arabia had taken delivery of a bomb from Pakistan, which would make a lot of sense in the realpolitik of this world (if not in terms of how they'd atcually get the bomb to S.A.) Well, did he??)  But it also might involve some kind of exchange, such as the freedom for AQ Khan in exchange for the body of OBL. I honestly believe there is a direct connection between this Khan thing and OBL. Question is, is Khan's freedom worth OBL's capture?

    In other words, I think the Administration believes, either mistakenly or not, that they've got Khan managed now, and they're benefitting from that relationship. I do suspect this is another example of future blowback, but it helps to understand why the administration is taking the stance they are.

    One other thing. Your post doesn't address India at all. How do you suppose India would react to Pakistan being invaded, particularly since war would involve a whole lot of chaos in Kashmir?  Because I don't see any way you'd be able to keep a war in Pakistan isolated in Pakistan without some really bloody mistakes transpiring in India.

    This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

    by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:05:30 PM PDT

    •  BINGO! (none / 0)

      Terrific last paragraph!  I've been scrolling down this thread waiting for someone to mention India.  Any move by the US in a military sense would throw the door wide open for hawks in India.  When all is said and done this would probably trigger the first thermo-nuclear war.  
  •  When you discover a beehive in your backyard ... (none / 0)

    ... the WORST thing you can do is take a stick and beat it into bloody oblivion.

    Sadly this has become our approach to fighting terrorism.

    Bush: Irresponsible and Reckless. Pass it on!

    by Captain Obvious on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:07:15 PM PDT

  •  The other player (none / 0)

    If you want to denuclearize Pakistan, you need to have a plan to denuclearize India as well.
    •  I thought of that... (none / 0)

      but they haven't been nearly as reckless, and they had that nuclear edge for decades without a major problem.  We could, provide some kind of assistance, though, perhaps in the form of a US-patrolled DMZ along their border.
    •  The Clinton Administration Tried It (none / 0)

      If you want to denuclearize Pakistan, you need to have a plan to denuclearize India as well.

      Strobe Talbott, the Deputy Secretary of State in the Clinton Administration from 1994-2001, worked on this issue for years. He wanted to have a regional non-proliferation pact to include not only India and Pakistan but also China and Israel.

      The fact is that the Bush Administration, with its neo-con and realpolitik blinders on, didn't want to promote any foreign policy initiative Clinton took -- even if it made a great deal of sense, as in the case of North Korea. Only to return stumblingly to the very same policy (more or less) Clinton had towards North Korea.

      Another interesting fact: the Pakistani-American community -- after decades of supporting Republican Administrations perceived to be pro-Pakistan -- has turned the corner and is vociferously anti-Bush now. As are the majority of Arab-Americans, Muslim or Christians, who, contrary to public perception, make up a majority of Arabs in this country.

      Would Pakistan and India be amenable to a regional solution involving the key issues of nuclear weapons and Kashmir under a Democratic Administration? Possibly. As former Democratic Senator George Mitchell has often said -- based on his diplomatic experiences in Northern Ireland and the Middle East -- the solution to failed diplomacy is more diplomacy. Something which has eluded the Bush Administration from Day One!

      A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

      by JekyllnHyde on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:07:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sounds great (none / 0)

        However, so far as I know only 1 country has ever given up nuclear weapons and they weren't in a geopolitical pressure cooker.

        Peace, freedom and a few less fat bastards eating all the pie

        by JPP on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:34:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  More Than Just One (none / 0)

          According to an Associated Press article, Henry Sokolski, head of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington, D.C.

          [c]ountries that gave up nuclear weapons programs -- Argentina, South Africa, Ukraine, and Brazil -- moved closer to political openness while they did so.

          The plan that Talbott was working on didn't necessarily include giving up nuclear weapons as much as being signatories to one which guaranteed responsible behavior. Presumably it included the prevention of sharing nuclear technology with other states.

          A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

          by JekyllnHyde on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 09:02:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't count "programs" (none / 0)

            Given the cost and difficulty it's much less impressive to forego something you might develop after much toil and expenditure than something already made an integral aspect of your defense posture.

            I will stand corrected if a nation other than S. Africa has given up actual weapons. Ukraine would be interesting, but I suspect the issue there is also qute unlike Pakistan and India.

            Peace, freedom and a few less fat bastards eating all the pie

            by JPP on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 09:13:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Several former Soviet states (none / 0)

              Ukarine, Belarus and Kazakhstan all allowed the removal of the former Soviet nuclear arsenal from their territories, effectively joining South Africa in nuclear disarmamnt.  However, this is complicated by the issue that while removal of the intact and active nuclear weapons themselves was a reasonably simple task, the vast Soviet nuclear-industrial complex left varieties of radiological and weapons related materials scattered across an enormous number of sites, , much of which can never be effectively accounted for.  This has led to widespread reports that, for instance, a number of "dirty bombs" were manufactured at one point in the breakaway Transdniestr region of Moldova.  
  •  Nuke em, W! (none / 1)

    While I appreciate Slacker's concern about the dangers of nuclear proliferation, I think the solutions he offered are extreme and unworkable to say the least. For one thing, the members of the Security Council are really not that interested in stopping nuclear proliferation.  In fact, they are the primary driving forces of proliferation.  For one thing, China wants Pakistan to be a nuclear power. That is why they helped them get them in the first place.  So if you consider Pakistan to be a rogue state, than we can say China has helped a rogue state become a nuclear power. That's just one member of the security council, France, Russia, the US, and (I'm less sure on this one) have all furthered proliferation, whether intentionally or not.  Each SC member has its own pet developing nation that it wants (or at least doesn't mind) to have nuclear weapons, so I just can't see them doing anything about this.  Not to mention that our credibility on the WMD issue has declined in the past few years.  
    I am not saying that I know the solution to this, but I am not all that sure there is one. For all our efforts (and we should make a real effort), it seems that nuclear proliferation will be something we have to live with.
    •  pet "developing" nations (none / 1)

      You mean like Israel, that we (and France, IIRC) armed with the bomb and thereby incented everyone else in the neighborhood to start looking for some neat new weapons?

      This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

      by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:20:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep (none / 0)

        In the case of the US, yes, that was who I was referring to, and (IIRC) I think you can give France the lions share of the the credit there.  
      •  Good point (none / 0)

        I detest the government of Israel, as I have made abundantly clear.  But they, like China, are way too far along to be disarmed now (even if the US could ever have the political will to do so).  And despite my enmity for them, I do think they are stable enough not to go crazy with nukes.
        •  Arial Sharon=Stable (none / 0)

          I'm not seeing it, frankly.

          This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

          by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:27:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Need to expound (none / 0)

          Alright, I need to expound on that last quote.

          First of all, Bibi Netanyahu=stable, not seeing that either.

          Not seeing ordering the IDF to raze entire neighborhoods as a policy supporting stability either.

          Further, whether or not you believe Israel is stable, it's pretty hard to justify continuing to "loan" them $3-$9 billion each year so they can buy more fancy weapons that their neighbors don't have. You're just begging for nuclear proliferation. Both here, and with your original Pakistan example, you need to address the fact that these countries believe, with some justification in all cases, that they face extiction unless they can find some counterweight to the arms their neighbor has. I'm not sure how invading Pakistan is going to calm thos justifiable fears.

          This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

          by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:33:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hey, no argument here (none / 0)

            If I were in charge, I'd cut all aid to Israel and join the rest of the world in isolating them until they agree to withdraw to behind the Green Line.
            •  Can we do that first? (none / 0)

              Because I see that action having beneficial effects a lot quicker than I see invading Pakistan having beneficial effects.

              This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

              by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 07:48:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  But over the long term... (none / 0)

                the Pakistan issue is more dangerous (potentially).  But hey, I'm all for doing both!
                •  It's not unrelated (none / 0)

                  Because it is just as likely that Pakistan has or will give nuke technology to Saudi Arabia, which is just as likely (if not more so) to suffer from a coup of some sort, which is just as likely to put nukes in the hands of people who have no disincentive to using them.

                  This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

                  by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 08:01:25 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Pakistan/Saudi/Israel (none / 0)

                    I don't think that cutting off aid to Israel would solve the problem.  Even if Israel were to completely get rid of its nuclear arsenal, would this stop other middle eastern countries from seeking their own?  If, as you seem to favor, the US/Israel alliance ends, won't procuring a nuclear weapon be just as important to Israel's neighbors? That way, they could impose whatever settlement they wished.  
                    •  Alliance v. weapons walmart (none / 0)

                      There's a difference between having an alliance with a country and effectively giving it huge amounts of cutting edge weapons.

                      This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

                      by emptywheel on Fri Feb 06, 2004 at 10:38:51 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Agreed (none / 0)

                        Agreed, but I am assuming a cutoff in US aid would weaken whatever alliance we have with Israel.  That aid-free Israel would be a far less secure Israel (or at least perceive itself as far less secure), and one that would be less likely to listen to US advice/criticism.  I think that you can argue that this can be justified on some grounds, I just don't know if would necessarily reduce the desire for superweapons among other mideast countries.
  •  Nuke em, W! (none / 0)

    While I appreciate Slacker's concern about the dangers of nuclear proliferation, I think the solutions he offered are extreme and unworkable to say the least. For one thing, the members of the Security Council are really not that interested in stopping nuclear proliferation.  In fact, they are the primary driving forces of proliferation.  For one thing, China wants Pakistan to be a nuclear power. That is why they helped them get them in the first place.  So if you consider Pakistan to be a rogue state, than we can say China has helped a rogue state become a nuclear power. That's just one member of the security council, France, Russia, the US, and (I'm less sure on this one) have all furthered proliferation, whether intentionally or not.  Each SC member has its own pet developing nation that it wants (or at least doesn't mind) to have nuclear weapons, so I just can't see them doing anything about this.  Not to mention that our credibility on the WMD issue has declined in the past few years.  
    I am not saying that I know the solution to this, but I am not all that sure there is one. For all our efforts (and we should make a real effort), it seems that nuclear proliferation will be something we have to live with.
    •  Prepare for Nuclear Proliferation (none / 0)

      That's all.  EVERY country is going to have them just like every country has tanks.  That's going to happen, and that's the paradigm.

      The old standards (just have more/better tanks) don't work with nuclear arms.

      •  I don't think this is sustainable (none / 0)

        If every country has them, it's going to lead to their use at some point by some ...which will lead to the countries that have H-bombs, and overwhelming numbers of ICBMs, leaning heavily on the others (using their nukes if need be) to rein things in.  I think it would be better to do some prevention rather than wait for that "cure".  But given the history of such things (look at how the Hart-Rudman commission was ignored), we'll probably just have to wait for the latter.
  •  Pakistan without India? (none / 0)

    You cannot solve the nuclear issue in Pakistan without solving it in India. India went nuclear first and Pakistan followed a couple weeks behind. Musharraf was almost convinved to not follow India, but they decided it was needed as a show of strength (and also as a deterrent) to thawrt further agression in Kashmir.

    There is no possible way to disarm Pakistan without disarming India, and the radical BJP parts will not allow that.

  •  Invade Pakistan? (none / 1)

    We have a few steps to take, before such an invasion - getting world consensus against Pakistan, the steps that should have been taken instead of spending the last year and a half or more gearing up to and then invading Iraq. The biggest victory in the now long detoured war on terror will be to denuclearize Pakistan - a united world could have been on its way to such a goal but for Iraq. With military, intelligence and nuclear establishments devoted to jehad, there is no confidence that in the future Pakistani nukes will be kept out of dirty bombs or worse against the west.

    Someone made a comment that to denuclearize Pakistan, we have to denuclearize India. And why would that be? It's not Indian nuclear scientists who have been attending jehad conferences and helping Iran etc. with nukes. And its not India's military that has collaborated with Al Qaeda, helped the Taliban. Its not India's military that is still running terrorist camps (yes, still active in Pakistan). According to a recent LA Times article, a terrorist leader is running his headquarters within sight of Pakistani military headquarters in Islamabad. Actually Pakistani nukes were also used as a blackmail tool to dissuade India from attacking Al Qaeda bases in Pakistan, from where terrorists were heading to Kashmir.

    Giving economic aid to Pakistan will not help. Part of the billions pumped by the Bush administration to Pakistan have been siphoned for resurrecting the Taliban. Pakistan is the ultimate "rogue nation" , and only an administration with the current level of accountability can claim it as an ally.

    Subodh

    •  One-sided (none / 1)

      As someone who has a lot of family in Pakistan (and in India!) I am very much against any military action against Pakistan.  Meddling in Pakistan--and the Muslim world as a whole--just creates further and further messes.

      Subodh's analysis is extremely one-sided.  It's based on a Indian-ly convenient conflation of Pakistan's problems with India and the problems the Muslim world with the West. It's also based on the highly disputable assumption that India has the only legitimate claim to Kashmir.  Indian scientists can well be thought of as equivalents to Pakistani scientists in that both of them are working on nukes to further an interest they perceive.  In the case of Pakistan and Pakistani scientists, it is that India is viewed as a malevolent threat.  Their association with "jihadi conferences" is reactive--India is seen as allied with forces such as Israel that are also seen as malevolent. (Actually most "jihadi" thinking is reactive.)

      The development of the bomb in Pakistan was performed with the view that India would take a more aggressive conventional weapons posture if it were the only one with nuclear weapons.  Especially with a loud Hindutva party in power.  It is entirely contingent on Indian behaviour, as Pakistan can't afford to do anything else.  The international proliferation as well was performed because it makes it affordable for Pakistan to compete with India.

      Both of them must be disarmed, or neither.  Or you risk a worse conflagration.

      •  Attending jehad conference "reactive" (none / 1)

        Very nice. Since they don't like India, Pakistani nuclear scientists attend jehad conferences.

        Indianly convenient conflation of Pakistan's problems with India. very nice indeed.

        Let's look at the "problems" again:

        -Nuclear proliferation to America's worst enemies.
        -Terrorist leader who signed Bin Laden's anti-US fatwa operates jehad headquarters in eyesight of Pakistani military headquarters (only one example- too many to recount here)
        - Creation, and recreation of Taliban

        These excuses for jehad and nuclear proliferation are pathetic as well as sinister. We do it because we don't like India, we do it because we don't like Israel. We can then justify anything destructive.

        •  Really now (none / 0)

          Very nice. Since they don't like India, Pakistani nuclear scientists attend jehad conferences.

          It is widely believed in Pakistan (both by the secular and the religious) that Muslim disunity is the cause of the woes of Muslim countries, particularly Pakistan's vulnerability to India.

          So I don't really care for them allying with this people, to put it mildly, but you really have to put the motivation in context.  These scientists are not Taliban, you know, but they think they're really smart looking for allies like that.  Naive.

          Indianly convenient conflation of Pakistan's problems with India. very nice indeed.

          Yes.  The (typical Indian government/media) way you state things conflates the Western rhetoric on terrorism and stereotypes of Islam with the specific conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir in order to define a common interest--a front--between India and the West. Against whom, pray tell?  

          This move helps India to avoid further negotiation over Kashmir.  It also furthers the perception of an apocalyptic Muslim/non-Muslim conflict that is very pleasing to "jihadis" and serves to "prove" them right. It means that the "jihadis" and the nuclear scientists are right and that Iraq is Palestine is Kashmir. Good for the Indian government, good for "jihadis", bad for everyone else (including the nuclear scientists).

          -Nuclear proliferation to America's worst enemies.

          Cheap way to get various stuff.  Need to pool resources, don't you know.  The easiest way to avoid this proliferation was for the impetus to disappear.  The most immediate impetus was India's possesion of nuclear weapons.

          -Terrorist leader who signed Bin Laden's anti-US fatwa operates jehad headquarters in eyesight of Pakistani military headquarters (only one example- too many to recount here)

          Playing with fire, easy way to deal with India.

          - Creation, and recreation of Taliban

          This was both a strategic necessity and strategic error of Pakistan that has, I will agree, ballooned out of control.  It was seen as absolutely vital to reestablish order on the northern border with Afghanistan and to prevent multiple fronts from ever opening.  It failed and it backfired.  But the seeds were sown by the US use of Pakistan in the war against the Soviets, since it was the products of the madrassas used by the US that Pakistan thought it could affordably use as well.

          From a Pakistani military point of view, it was/is still entirely focused on the Kashmir issue.

          These excuses for jehad and nuclear proliferation are pathetic as well as sinister. We do it because we don't like India, we do it because we don't like Israel. We can then justify anything destructive.

          Not "...because we don't like..."  It's "...because we are threatened by...".  There is a symmetry there that people don't want to admit.  Dare I say it, a moral equivalence.

  •  he he he... har har har... (none / 0)

    funny how facts take a back seat when armchair generals take over.

    Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is weaponized and limited to a range that can strike major cities in India.  To actually 'invade' pakistan, the US has to stage in one of three places: India, China or afghanistan.  What are the chances that India will allow a massive build up of US troops on its soil (like Saudi arabia) with the express goal of invading pakistan? slim and none - especially with its 150 million muslim population.

    That leaves China as the other staging area but sadly the practially impassable Himalayan range separates China and pakistan.  If you think our soldiers are going to relish going from the iraqi heat to the cold of the siachen glacier you are completely nuts.

    then there is this rather interesting problem of where do we find the troops to 'invade' pakistan.  

    by the way, India has been nuclear for a few decades not